Economic Recovery: Real or Contrived

Portraying that the economy is in recovery will be a critical component of President Obama's reelection campaign. Conversely, the republicans will make the case that the recovery is a fiction created by the main stream media. Both sides are right and lying at the same time.

It is undeniable that the economy is growing at a modest rate that suggests that we are making our way out of the recession. The stock market has made record gains and businesses have seen an uptake in orders. Small businesses owned by friends of this author have said that their businesses have been picking up to levels that they feel there is a light at the end of the tunnel. That is the bright side.

Unemployment remains the bellweather issue in the upcoming election. In October 2009 the official unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics was at a high of 10%. The latest rate for January 2012 was reported at 8.3%.

The unemployment rate has fallen but is nowhere near a level that can be described in positive terms. Furthermore, the numbers do not represent people who quit looking for work and those who have found employment but at a much decreased income level. Statistics used to make political arguments are always suspect. However, if the unemployment rate continues to fall then the American people will give the president credit for this at the voting booth. The republicans will attack the credibility of the numbers.

Another critical factor that voters will consider is inflation and the cost of the neccessities they buy. Fuel costs are front and center in this calculus. The turmoil in the Middle East has driven the price of oil up. As fuel costs rise inflicting financial pain on the American people the republicans will have low hanging fruit to attack the president's energy and economic policies. From squandering tax dollars on crony companies with untenable business models and technologies that are not ready to compete against fossil fuels to the Keystone pipeline and the moratorium on off shore drilling the president will have a difficult time defending himself. Obama subjecting American families to unnecessary financial pain in pursuit of ideological objectives will be the most effective weapon used by republicans to unseat the president.

The truth is that we have begun to emerge from recession but our recovery is precarious and by no means certain. President Obama's strategy to stop the recession by spending future tax dollars via massive borrowing and printing money is likely a cure that is much worse and more chronic than the original disease. Hoover taught all future presidents that doing anything, regardless of effectiveness, is better than doing nothing. The fact that Obama took many measures ala FDR may prove to be politically fortunate for him. Voters will be fed lies and distortions framed in simplistic explanations that will instill in them the delusion that they are informed when they are only lemmings for their programmers, whichever side of the political spectrum they may reside.